Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:05:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EC 0xec37…3172 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,573 (+18%) realized +$2,589 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$612per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,879now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$775
30 days−$707
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2,543
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +6.8% -3.4% 67% 67% -34.2%
≤90d 9 +29.7% +17.3% 78% 78% +3.4%
all 22 +4.1% -5.8% 59% 59% +9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 59% +9.5%
10% -14.8% 59% -1.0%
15% -23.1% 59% -10.5%
20% -30.6% 41% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$932) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$441 vs −$353 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$1,879
Realized+$2,589
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage117d
Avg bet$612
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jessica Pegula 61¢ 60¢ $1,895 $1,879 −$16 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 08 $47 +$24 +50%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $1,069 +$751 +70%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1,509 −$1,482 -98%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League St May 10 $15 +$7 +49%
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $2,406 +$1,593 +66%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Monte - Map 2 Winner May 09 $932 +$334 +36%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Wildcard - Map 2 Winner Apr 08 $344 −$339 -98%
Counter-Strike: Voca vs Johnny Speeds (BO3) - Parken Challenger Champi Apr 08 $3 +$2 +52%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Apr 08 $8 +$12 +144%
LoL: 4 SWINES & A BUM vs LEO (BO1) - NLC Regular Season Feb 26 $161 −$33 -21%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs New Zealand Feb 25 $648 +$431 +66%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs WW Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #16 Feb 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs ENCE (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Feb 25 $1,280 −$1,280 -100%
Thunder vs. Raptors Feb 25 $8 +$7 +96%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Feb 25 $13 +$7 +49%
Chile Open: Mariano Navone vs Vit Kopriva Feb 25 $13 +$9 +70%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Feb 25 $13 +$12 +92%
T20 World Cup: England vs Pakistan Feb 24 $3,658 +$2,542 +70%
ATX Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Dalma Galfi Feb 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Alexei Popyrin vs Kamil Majchrzak Feb 24 $5 −$5 -100%
St. Francis (PA) Red Flash vs. New Haven Chargers Feb 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $648 44m
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $14 44m
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $7 48m
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $188 49m
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $118 49m
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $27 53m
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $35 53m
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $14 56m
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $62 56m
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $374 57m
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $19 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $188 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $46 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $28 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $47 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $27 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $43 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $32 1h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas - Game 1 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 58¢ $12 13d
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas - Game 1 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 58¢ $194 13d
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas - Game 1 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 58¢ $26 13d
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas - Game 1 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 58¢ $14 13d
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas - Game 1 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 58¢ $822 13d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Los Angeles Thieves 66¢ $47 13d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 39¢ $91 14d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 39¢ $199 14d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 39¢ $5 14d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 39¢ $8 14d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 39¢ $4 14d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 39¢ $11 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,879.12 · official $1,879.12 (match) · 124 history records