Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:21:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec30…30b9 sports 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$56 (-10%) realized −$27 · open −$29
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%15W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$44
crypto 11% −$21
other 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -27.0% -33.9% 33% 33% -0.8%
≤30d 7 -37.4% -43.4% 29% 29% -3.1%
≤90d 43 -25.6% -32.7% 35% 35% -16.7%
all 43 -25.6% -32.7% 35% 35% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.7% 35% -16.7%
10% -39.2% 35% -24.6%
15% -45.0% 28% -31.9%
20% -50.4% 21% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$10 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses15 / 28
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage65d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins San Francisco Giants 45¢ 18¢ $24 $9 −$14 (-61%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Chicago White Sox 30¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $15 +$32 +206%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $14 +$4 +32%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $17 +$5 +29%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 12 $8 +$13 +165%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 - Map 1 Winner May 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros May 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner May 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner May 11 $30 +$20 +67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA - Map 2 Winner May 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 11 $5 +$5 +92%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA - Map 1 Winner May 11 $12 +$48 +388%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner May 11 $31 +$11 +36%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner May 11 $23 +$8 +34%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) May 11 $17 +$7 +40%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 11 $5 +$2 +39%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner May 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals May 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants May 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -94%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -95%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 10 $5 +$5 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 10 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox May 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 10 $8 +$6 +70%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $30 +$77 +256%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 - Map 1 Winner May 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $18 −$17 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 45¢ $24 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 30¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $47 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $15 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $18 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $14 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 35¢ $15 30h
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 29d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 36¢ $20 38d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage SELL MOUZ 100¢ $22 38d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY MOUZ 77¢ $17 38d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 25¢ $5 38d
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL San Francisco Giants 100¢ $22 38d
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY San Francisco Giants 37¢ $8 38d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B BUY M80 15¢ $15 38d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 - Map 1 Winner BUY M80 12¢ $10 39d
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 23¢ $15 39d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner BUY Liquid 19¢ $15 39d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 27¢ $15 39d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner SELL Astralis 100¢ $51 39d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner BUY Astralis 59¢ $30 39d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA - Map 2 Winner BUY Passion UA $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $10 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 39d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA - Map 2 Winner BUY Passion UA 18¢ $15 39d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $60 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.22 · official $26.57 · 68 history records