Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EC 0xec23…24fd crypto 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$46,545 (-14%) realized −$46,970 · open +$425
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%36W / 46L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,092per market
Trades / day49.0pace
Fees−$3,618est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$4,515now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$483
7 days−$13,828
14 days−$10,054
30 days−$36,502
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$22,384
crypto 16% −$17,718
other 7% +$1,373
politics 2% +$6,056
world 1% −$841
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +12.8% +2.1% 57% 48% -23.0%
≤30d 65 -12.7% -21.0% 48% 42% -21.1%
≤90d 82 -19.3% -27.0% 44% 39% -19.8%
all 82 -19.3% -27.0% 44% 39% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.0% 39% -19.8%
10% -34.0% 33% -27.4%
15% ← realistic here -40.4% 27% -34.5%
20% -46.2% 22% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$4,833) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -39% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
24.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,103 vs −$2,383 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$4,515
Realized−$46,970
Unrealized+$425
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses36 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$3,618
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage45d
Avg bet$4,092
Trades / day49.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 36¢ 40¢ $4,091 $4,515 +$425 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18,855 −$6,103 -32%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10,875 −$7,016 -64%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $4,679 +$12,612 +270%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $46 +$24 +52%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $36 +$9 +26%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $58 −$20 -35%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $9,677 −$5,781 -60%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $8,575 +$29 +0%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $7,577 −$953 -13%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $1,395 −$1,386 -99%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $1,237 +$183 +15%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $890 +$369 +41%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $3,763 +$374 +10%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $4,199 −$4,190 -100%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $8,431 −$4,545 -54%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3,628 +$7,472 +206%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2,685 +$965 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$7 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$12 +83%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $7,925 −$7,847 -99%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $7,475 +$294 +4%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $5,995 +$1,782 +30%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $5,747 −$119 -2%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $1,870 −$1,861 -100%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Pavel Kotov Jun 09 $4,888 −$4,888 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $9,680 +$920 +10%
Ilkley: Kyrian Jacquet vs Toby Samuel Jun 08 $4,477 +$3,292 +74%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $4,833 +$2,710 +56%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $8,489 +$4,930 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 07 $445 −$414 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 07 $541 −$541 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 07 $598 +$179 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 07 $730 +$47 +6%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Jun 03 $330 −$330 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $39,285 −$11,739 -30%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $24,205 +$3,543 +15%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $11,542 +$6,217 +54%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $10,185 +$8,416 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 27 $2,877 −$2,877 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 27 $624 +$728 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 27 $2,150 −$2,050 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 27 $3,655 −$3,655 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 27 $1,366 −$1,366 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 27 $30 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 27 $383 +$487 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 27 $400 −$386 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 27 $5,390 +$1,610 +30%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 26 $4,068 −$841 -21%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $27,098 −$26,687 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $1,693 9m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $29 13m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $2,447 15m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,833 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $3 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $216 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $43 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $340 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $3 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $840 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $113 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $3,858 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $10,875 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 50¢ $10,918 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $136 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $14,836 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $2,318 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $118 5h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1,660 5h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 5h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 5h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $24 5h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 5h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $54 5h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 5h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1,169 5h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 5h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $54 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,515.38 · official $4,401.07 · 2262 history records