Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:54:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

EC 0xec23…a896 sports 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$20 (+5%) realized −$86 · open +$106

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip

Net edge+19%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$141per market

Trades / day3.0pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$551now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+19.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+31.6%	+19.0%	100%	100%	+19.0%
≤30d	1	+31.6%	+19.0%	100%	100%	+19.0%
≤90d	1	+31.6%	+19.0%	100%	100%	+19.0%
all	1	+31.6%	+19.0%	100%	100%	+19.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+19.0%	100%	+19.0%
10%	+7.7%	100%	+7.7%
15%	-2.7%	0%	-2.7%
20%	-12.3%	0%	-12.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +32% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +32% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$26 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$551

Realized−$86

Unrealized+$106

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions2

Markets (closed)1 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$141

Trades / day3.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Team Falcons	59¢	83¢	$270	$380	+$110 (+41%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs	Power Rangers	50¢	48¢	$67	$64	−$3 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C	Jun 21	$83	+$26	+31%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY Team Falcons	59¢	$273	1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C	BUY Nigma Galaxy	76¢	$83	4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl	BUY Power Rangers	50¢	$68	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $551.38 · official $551.38 (match) · 3 history records