Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:11:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec21…cbbf crypto 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate72%29W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$22
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$15
weather 17% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.6% -11.9% 0% 0% -11.9%
≤30d 40 -5.9% -14.8% 72% 22% -11.9%
≤90d 40 -5.9% -14.8% 72% 22% -11.9%
all 40 -5.9% -14.8% 72% 22% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 22% -11.9%
10% -23.0% 15% -20.4%
15% -30.4% 10% -28.0%
20% -37.2% 8% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses29 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage14d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 27 $35 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $81 −$27 -33%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$26 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$25 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? SELL No 6¢ $2 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 32¢ $5 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 32¢ $5 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 32¢ $5 11d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 69¢ $4 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? SELL No 35¢ $18 11d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 73¢ $4 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 43¢ $4 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 40¢ $4 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 39¢ $3 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 32¢ $3 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 32¢ $3 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 32¢ $3 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? SELL No 29¢ $7 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 35¢ $3 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 46¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $36 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 47¢ $4 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? SELL No 44¢ $27 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 50¢ $4 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 50¢ $4 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 57¢ $5 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 58¢ $5 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 59¢ $5 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 55¢ $4 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 145 history records