Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:54:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec1e…3517 other 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$126 (+15%) realized +$115 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 25L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$83
14 days+$83
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$79
sports 36% +$18
world 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -4.7% -13.8% 38% 38% +3.4%
≤30d 40 -4.7% -13.8% 38% 38% +3.4%
≤90d 40 -4.7% -13.8% 38% 38% +3.4%
all 40 -4.7% -13.8% 38% 38% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 38% +3.4%
10% -22.0% 32% -6.5%
15% -29.6% 32% -15.5%
20% -36.5% 30% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$8 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized+$115
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 25
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)40 / 45
History coverage7d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Over 17¢ 50¢ $25 $71 +$46 (+185%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $61 −$39 (-39%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Over 53¢ 82¢ $15 $23 +$8 (+56%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $66 −$13 -20%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $26 −$15 -58%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 −$15 -72%
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Jun 21 $10 −$3 -33%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $36 +$41 +113%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $33 −$2 -5%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$40 +197%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $12 +$21 +175%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $8 −$5 -60%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +28%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 +$11 +220%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 +$18 +177%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 +$7 +65%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $36 +$48 +135%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $36 −$24 -66%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 $0 -9%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +89%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +77%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +17%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 +$18 +114%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $15 +$25 +162%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +19%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -5%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +47%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -45%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$3 -26%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 3¢ $3 0m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 13m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 19¢ $17 15m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $15 15m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 38m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 38m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 49m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 51m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 29¢ $21 52m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 59m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 7¢ $11 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 41¢ $31 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Belgium 7¢ $6 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 41¢ $32 1h
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) SELL Belgium 7¢ $7 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $5 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $26 2h
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) BUY Belgium 10¢ $10 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $31 2h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 23¢ $20 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 2¢ $1 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 32¢ $31 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 61¢ $43 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 62¢ $32 4h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $31 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $0 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $29 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.00 · official $216.00 (match) · 106 history records