Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:49:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EC 0xec1d…185f other 24 markets active 6d ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$29 (-1%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$6
politics 25% −$1
sports 1% −$20
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -10.0% -18.6% 75% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 14 -27.1% -34.0% 50% 0% -9.9%
all 24 -25.6% -32.7% 50% 21% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.7% 21% -10.0%
10% -39.1% 21% -18.6%
15% -45.0% 8% -26.5%
20% -50.4% 8% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage140d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $2,559 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? May 23 $2 $0 +2%
Will Damac Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $4 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 21 $3 $0 +4%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 19 $3 $0 +6%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 19 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,314 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,316 −$1 -0%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Vitality win Blast Open Rotterdam 2026? Mar 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterda Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Warriors vs. Rockets Mar 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Jazz vs. Wizards Mar 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-01? Mar 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Olympique de Marseille vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5 Mar 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-01? Mar 02 $2 +$1 +54%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Feb 16 $3 +$1 +24%
Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-02-14? Feb 16 $2 +$3 +127%
Will Paris FC vs. Racing Club de Lens end in a draw? Feb 16 $4 +$1 +35%
Will Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC end in a draw? Jan 28 $4 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,556 6d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,559 6d
Will Damac Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? BUY No 97¢ $4 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? BUY Yes $3 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 28d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $3 35d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $3 35d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 36d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,313 64d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,314 64d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,314 64d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,316 65d
Will Vitality win Blast Open Rotterdam 2026? BUY No 37¢ $4 82d
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car BUY Israel Adesanya 58¢ $3 82d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterda BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $5 82d
Jazz vs. Wizards BUY Wizards 55¢ $2 104d
Warriors vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 77¢ $5 104d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-01? BUY No 65¢ $2 107d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 BUY Monte 44¢ $5 107d
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-01? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 107d
Olympique de Marseille vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $3 107d
Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-02-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 123d
Will Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $3 123d
Will Paris FC vs. Racing Club de Lens end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $4 123d
Will Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $4 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records