Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EC 0xec1d…db17 crypto 964 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$251 (+5%) realized +$141 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate60%546W / 363L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day79.3pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$58
14 days+$39
30 days+$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% +$186
sports 24% −$63
other 5% $0
world 2% −$2
weather 1% −$6
politics 0% −$3
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 232 +3.9% -6.0% 60% 50% -4.4%
≤30d 799 +2.8% -7.0% 60% 46% -6.8%
≤90d 909 +2.0% -7.8% 60% 45% -7.1%
all 909 +2.0% -7.8% 60% 45% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 45% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 39% -15.9%
15% -24.6% 36% -24.1%
20% -32.0% 28% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized+$141
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses546 / 363
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions56
Markets (closed)909 / 964
History coverage33d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day79.3
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 56 History 909 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia to score first vs. Sweden? No 68¢ 100¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+47%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 92¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+42%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 55¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+22%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 47¢ 54¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+14%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 84¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 38¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 81¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 62¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 54¢ 53¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 48¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ 20¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 43¢ 40¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 40¢ 38¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 57¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 62¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 66¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-16%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 28¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the June Meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Overwatch: VARREL vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage VARREL 97¢ 96¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 45¢ 99¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+121%)
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $3 −$2 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $4 +$3 +84%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +100%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +30%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +27%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +52%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 +$2 +83%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 +$2 +40%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $4 +$1 +37%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $1 +$2 +197%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6 −$3 -50%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $4 $0 -8%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +62%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $1 1h
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY No 41¢ $2 1h
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY No 41¢ $2 1h
Tunisia to score first vs. Sweden? BUY No 68¢ $2 1h
Tunisia to score first vs. Sweden? BUY No 68¢ $2 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $1 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $2 2h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 39¢ $2 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 72¢ $2 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 72¢ $2 2h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY No 64¢ $2 2h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY No 64¢ $2 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $2 2h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 100¢ $5 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $2 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $2 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $2 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 52¢ $2 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 52¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.29 · official $134.46 · 3500 history records