Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:33:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EC 0xec19…54e1 world 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$497 (+40%) realized +$499 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip
Net edge+45%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate100%10W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$413
30 days+$492
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$469
other 26% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+51.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +6.8% -3.4% 100% 0% -3.4%
≤30d 10 +66.9% +51.0% 100% 70% +37.0%
≤90d 10 +66.9% +51.0% 100% 70% +37.0%
all 10 +66.9% +51.0% 100% 70% +37.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +51.0% 70% +37.0%
10% +36.6% 60% +23.9%
15% +23.4% 50% +11.9%
20% +11.3% 40% +1.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +67% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$49 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized+$499
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses10 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage28d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $136 $135 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $68 $67 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 20 $136 +$9 +7%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $37 +$23 +62%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $56 +$21 +38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $80 +$43 +54%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $97 +$5 +5%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 08 $200 +$33 +16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $70 +$279 +398%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $113 +$3 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 25 $94 +$58 +62%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $72 +$18 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $54 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 17¢ $20 4h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 17¢ $44 4h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 17¢ $40 4h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 17¢ $33 4h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 17¢ $2 5h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 17¢ $7 5h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $86 12h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $2 2d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $21 2d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 15¢ $15 2d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 15¢ $15 2d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 15¢ $15 2d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 15¢ $0 2d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $20 2d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 2d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 2d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 2d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 2d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 2d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 2d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 2d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $39 2d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 2d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 2d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $90 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $82 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.49 · official $202.49 (match) · 93 history records