Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:57:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec18…da8f sports 109 markets active 15h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$34 (-10%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%51W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$15
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$32
politics 10% −$1
other 10% +$3
world 5% $0
economics 4% +$1
tech 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +44.0% +30.3% 65% 65% +13.3%
≤30d 22 +11.2% +0.7% 50% 50% -14.8%
≤90d 22 +11.2% +0.7% 50% 50% -14.8%
all 108 -5.8% -14.8% 47% 44% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 44% -18.9%
10% -23.0% 42% -26.6%
15% -30.4% 31% -33.7%
20% -37.2% 24% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses51 / 57
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage239d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $2 +$3 +129%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 +$1 +27%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $4 +$1 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$15 +712%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $4 +$1 +27%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $3 +$1 +40%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $3 +$5 +158%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5) Dec 14 $8 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 14 $1 +$1 +144%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3) Dec 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) Dec 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 11 $1 $0 +37%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Passion UA (BO3) Dec 11 $1 $0 +47%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FaZe (BO3) Dec 11 $1 +$1 +70%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Team Falcons (BO1) Dec 11 $2 $0 +19%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $2 +$1 +43%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs G2 (BO3) Dec 11 $2 +$1 +45%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) Dec 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Team Falcons (BO1) Dec 05 $1 $0 +25%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Vitality (BO1) Dec 05 $1 $0 +27%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO1) Dec 05 $1 +$1 +56%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO1) Dec 05 $1 +$1 +61%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Team Falcons (BO1) Dec 05 $1 +$3 +317%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO1) Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TheMongolz (BO1) Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs B8 (BO1) Dec 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Spirit (BO1) Dec 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NIP (BO3) Dec 04 $1 +$1 +79%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs B8 (BO1) Dec 04 $1 +$1 +82%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs B8 (BO1) Dec 04 $1 +$1 +117%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Legacy (BO3) Dec 04 $1 +$1 +144%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $2 14h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 80¢ $4 17h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 78¢ $4 17h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 74¢ $4 17h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 39h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 88¢ $5 47h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 24¢ $1 47h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $4 47h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 71¢ $3 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 91¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $4 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 28¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 57¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Astralis 60¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 45¢ $10 7d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 38¢ $3 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 21¢ $1 8d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FlyQuest 32¢ $2 8d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 33¢ $2 8d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 47¢ $5 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5) SELL FaZe 43¢ $8 182d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5) BUY FaZe 27¢ $8 182d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) BUY FaZe 41¢ $1 183d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3) BUY Spirit 47¢ $1 183d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) BUY TheMongolz 23¢ $1 185d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $2 185d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) BUY B8 29¢ $1 189d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.28 · official $2.28 (match) · 168 history records