Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:53:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EC 0xec16…7550 politics 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+15%) realized +$23 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate62%32W / 20L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$5
other 19% +$6
politics 3% $0
weather 2% +$1
sports 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.1% -13.3% 38% 25% -20.5%
≤30d 48 +12.7% +2.0% 62% 33% +1.9%
≤90d 52 +9.9% -0.5% 62% 35% +0.1%
all 52 +9.9% -0.5% 62% 35% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 35% +0.1%
10% -10.0% 27% -9.4%
15% -18.7% 19% -18.2%
20% -26.7% 17% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses32 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage33d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+46%)
Will Monica Rodriguez win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Austin Beutner win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Lindsey Horvath win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Asaad Alnajjar win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +354%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$3 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 4? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +71%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1 +$2 +174%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 +$2 +161%
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1 $0 +17%
Makarska: Lola Radivojevic vs Mia Ristic Jun 04 $1 $0 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -54%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $1 $0 -3%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 02 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2 +$8 +396%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2 +$1 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1 +$4 +355%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 01 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 21h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 8¢ $5 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 2¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $2 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 4? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 10d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $3 10d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 10d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 10d
Makarska: Lola Radivojevic vs Mia Ristic SELL Mia Ristic 59¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 4? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 4? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 11d
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 11d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 11d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $1 11d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.47 · official $1.47 (match) · 234 history records