Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:40:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

EC 0xec15…1ae5 crypto 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$138 (+41%) realized +$141 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +331% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +290% what you keep after slip

Net edge+290%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$85per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 59d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+290.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+469.5%	+415.2%	100%	100%	+126.4%
≤30d	3	+331.2%	+290.1%	100%	100%	+108.9%
≤90d	3	+331.2%	+290.1%	100%	100%	+108.9%
all	3	+331.2%	+290.1%	100%	100%	+108.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+290.1%	100%	+108.9%
10%	+252.8%	100%	+88.9%
15%	+218.7%	100%	+70.7%
20%	+187.4%	67%	+53.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 71% · top 2 92% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +131% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +331% · $-wt +131% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$45 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage

Net worth$226

Realized+$141

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage59d

Avg bet$85

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$229	$226	−$3 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9?	Jun 17	$71	+$28	+39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9?	Jun 17	$11	+$96	+900%
Solana Up or Down on April 20?	Jun 09	$21	+$11	+54%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$236	1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9?	BUY No	9¢	$11	8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9?	BUY No	71¢	$71	8d
Solana Up or Down on April 20?	BUY Down	63¢	$21	58d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $226.04 · official $226.04 (match) · 7 history records