Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:36:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec14…25d6 crypto 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 575d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$126 (-8%) realized −$117 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%48W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$16
14 days−$20
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$176
crypto 27% −$39
other 18% +$54
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -51.1% -55.8% 11% 11% +9.4%
≤30d 28 -38.8% -44.6% 29% 29% -27.9%
≤90d 132 -21.0% -28.5% 30% 30% -13.2%
all 145 -17.7% -25.5% 33% 32% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 32% -18.0%
10% -32.6% 27% -25.9%
15% -39.1% 24% -33.0%
20% -45.1% 23% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$8 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

575d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$117
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses48 / 97
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions6
Markets (closed)145 / 152
History coverage575d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 16¢ $21 $14 −$7 (-35%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-13%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+53%)
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -53%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$52 +169%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -95%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 06 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 05 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 02 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -94%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 31 $3 +$2 +74%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $26 −$25 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima May 28 $20 +$3 +13%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 24 $5 +$7 +134%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Emilio Nava vs Pedro Martinez May 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Ugo Humbert May 21 $4 +$9 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 21 $42 +$15 +36%
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Vit Kopriva May 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 18 $6 +$5 +79%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 18 $1 $0 +11%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 15 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 15 $6 +$5 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Luciano Darderi vs Alexander Zverev May 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 12 $3 +$4 +116%
Bengaluru 2: Ilya Ivashka vs Kuan-Yi Lee May 12 $5 −$4 -73%
Valencia: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nicolas Alvarez Varona May 12 $4 −$4 -86%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Dino Prizmic May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 11 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 11 $6 −$6 -96%
Set 1 Winner: Cobolli vs Tirante May 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 38m
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 38m
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 22h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on BUY 2¢ $1 22h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 22¢ $9 24h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $82 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 27h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 27h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 27h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 6d
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 26¢ $19 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.63 · official $61.98 · 262 history records