Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:52:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec13…5808 other 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 340d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$324 (+28%) realized +$324 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate19%12W / 50L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$332
world 22% −$7
politics 21% −$1
crypto 15% $0
tech 4% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -4.7% -13.8% 30% 10% -12.5%
≤30d 11 -4.6% -13.6% 27% 9% -12.5%
≤90d 11 -4.6% -13.6% 27% 9% -12.5%
all 62 +2.6% -7.1% 19% 3% +16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 3% +16.0%
10% -16.0% 2% +4.9%
15% -24.1% 2% -5.2%
20% -31.6% 2% -14.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$0 · ×61.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×29.52 per $1 lost it wins $29.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

340d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$324
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses12 / 50
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage340d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -14%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $42 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +17%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $57 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $11 −$1 -6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $4 −$1 -32%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $30 −$6 -20%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $4 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Aug 10 $123 +$334 +270%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Jul 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 25 $14 $0 -1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jul 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jul 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jul 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? Jul 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Jul 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 23 $14 $0 -1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 22 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 21 $14 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 21 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 18–25? Jul 20 $14 $0 -2%
Will Octavian Berceanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Jul 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Jul 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Jul 19 $14 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jul 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 18 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 17 $2 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Jul 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Jul 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 16 $8 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $41 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $41 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 14h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 43h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $37 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $37 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $20 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 39¢ $20 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $11 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $40 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $40 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 3¢ $3 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 5¢ $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $15 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $10 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $30 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 169 history records