Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec12…fd9d other 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$155 (-11%) realized −$151 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$155
sports 16% +$85
world 4% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +21.7% +10.1% 48% 48% -18.2%
≤30d 29 +21.7% +10.1% 48% 48% -18.2%
≤90d 29 +21.7% +10.1% 48% 48% -18.2%
all 29 +21.7% +10.1% 48% 48% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.1% 48% -18.2%
10% ← realistic here -0.4% 48% -26.0%
15% -10.1% 31% -33.2%
20% -18.9% 31% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$38 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized−$151
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)29 / 34
History coverage2d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $105 +$36 +34%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $11 −$10 -89%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $11 +$38 +360%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 +$12 +58%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 −$9 -45%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $42 +$11 +26%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $45 +$50 +110%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $16 +$12 +76%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $11 +$2 +23%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 +$50 +236%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $52 −$46 -88%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$6 +28%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$24 +452%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$6 -29%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$15 +70%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $105 −$43 -41%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $53 −$42 -79%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $69 +$20 +29%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $53 +$82 +155%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $53 −$50 -95%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $53 +$94 +177%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $106 −$57 -54%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $53 −$47 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 8m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 8m
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $27 9m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 17¢ $27 10m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $105 25m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 27m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 46m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 57¢ $49 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 34¢ $34 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $45 4h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 22¢ $28 4h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 76¢ $42 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $105 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 5h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 5h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 5h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 5h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $27 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $15 31h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $36 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $62 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.80 · official $185.80 (match) · 65 history records