trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -0.5% | -10.0% | 25% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 17% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 14 | -2.6% | -11.9% | 50% | 14% | -8.9% |
| all | 27 | -3.2% | -12.4% | 52% | 33% | -13.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.4% | 33% | -13.7% |
| 10% | -20.8% | 30% | -21.9% |
| 15% | -28.4% | 26% | -29.5% |
| 20% | -35.5% | 19% | -36.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $140 | $140 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Jun 29 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? | Jun 29 | $762 | −$5 | -1% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet | Jun 24 | $237 | +$3 | +1% |
| Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Jun 23 | $4 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Jun 20 | $4 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Jun 12 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 26 | $11 | −$1 | -6% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? | May 26 | $3 | −$3 | -88% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? | May 26 | $53 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? | May 26 | $43 | +$8 | +18% |
| Nexus FDV above $200M one day after launch? | May 25 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? | May 25 | $14 | +$4 | +31% |
| Octra FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Apr 27 | $21 | $0 | +2% |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | Apr 11 | $8 | $0 | +6% |
| Pistons vs. Heat | Mar 09 | $58 | −$58 | -100% |
| Golden Knights vs. Sabres | Mar 08 | $35 | −$35 | -100% |
| Wild vs. Avalanche | Feb 28 | $77 | −$77 | -100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on February 14? | Feb 17 | $12 | +$16 | +134% |
| Rangers vs. Penguins | Feb 03 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Bucks vs. Kings | Jan 11 | $66 | +$31 | +47% |
| Jets vs. Avalanche | Dec 22 | $36 | +$16 | +45% |
| Penguins vs. Canadiens | Dec 22 | $31 | +$24 | +79% |
| Red Wings vs. Bruins | Dec 03 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Grizzlies vs. Kings | Dec 03 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Oilers vs. Kraken | Dec 03 | $13 | +$10 | +72% |
| Flyers vs. Lightning | Nov 28 | $17 | +$10 | +59% |
| Hornets vs. Pacers | Nov 22 | $25 | +$28 | +115% |