Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:23:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec09…4c2f sports 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$120 (-4%) realized −$111 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%20W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$167
7 days+$212
14 days+$196
30 days+$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$134
other 29% −$81
politics 6% −$149
tech 1% −$49
world 1% −$30
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-41.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +31.9% +19.4% 70% 70% +31.3%
≤30d 34 -12.8% -21.1% 47% 47% +2.8%
≤90d 34 -12.8% -21.1% 47% 47% +2.8%
all 57 -35.2% -41.4% 35% 35% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.4% 35% -14.5%
10% -47.0% 33% -22.7%
15% -52.1% 30% -30.1%
20% -56.8% 26% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -67% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$33 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$111
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses20 / 37
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)57 / 60
History coverage230d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $51 +$33 +65%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$26 +52%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $81 +$84 +103%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 +$26 +86%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $51 +$47 +94%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$39 +76%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 −$15 -50%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $61 +$48 +79%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $27 +$38 +137%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $71 +$78 +110%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $131 +$57 +44%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $81 −$79 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $91 +$21 +23%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $40 +$18 +45%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$20 -49%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$58 +113%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $30 +$31 +101%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $61 −$60 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $91 −$10 -11%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 Winner Mar 01 $18 −$18 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Mar 01 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Mar 01 $30 +$17 +56%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $20 $0 -0%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs MVK Esports (BO3) - LCP Regular Season Feb 05 $198 −$198 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs MVK Esports - Game 1 Winner Feb 05 $80 −$20 -24%
Will Tran Cam Tu be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Commun Jan 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Nov 12 $120 −$120 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 10 $347 +$204 +59%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $70 −$70 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $51 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 13h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: En BUY 10¢ $26 13h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $165 13h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 15h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 58¢ $51 23h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 32h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Paper Rex 51¢ $51 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $89 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 26¢ $15 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $30 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 8d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $30 8d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $61 9d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $65 9d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 20¢ $10 9d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $149 9d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 53¢ $20 9d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 44¢ $10 9d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 45¢ $20 9d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 40¢ $17 9d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 46¢ $10 9d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 44¢ $20 9d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $25.07 · 225 history records