Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:29:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec06…4815 crypto 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-2%) realized −$34 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate71%29W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$12
14 days−$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% +$12
culture 31% −$46
world 16% +$7
other 13% −$16
finance 4% $0
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +10.6% +0.0% 100% 33% -0.1%
≤30d 14 +3.8% -6.1% 86% 29% -9.0%
≤90d 41 -0.9% -10.3% 71% 15% -11.9%
all 41 -0.9% -10.3% 71% 15% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 15% -11.9%
10% -18.9% 2% -20.3%
15% -26.7% 2% -28.0%
20% -33.9% 2% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$11 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses29 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage62d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? Yes 89¢ 94¢ $45 $47 +$2 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? Jun 22 $41 +$4 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 21? Jun 21 $38 +$3 +7%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? Jun 21 $33 +$5 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$3 +9%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$9 +60%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 −$33 -93%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 13 $30 +$5 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$3 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $48 −$4 -8%
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 08 $47 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $75 +$3 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $40 +$1 +4%
Will "In the Grey" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete May 31 $12 $0 +3%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 20m? May 16 $83 −$71 -85%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 23m May 16 $79 +$5 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? May 15 $74 +$4 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 14 $74 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12? May 12 $71 +$4 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 12 $101 +$4 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 10 $77 −$8 -11%
Will "Apex" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? May 09 $71 +$6 +9%
Will "Man on Fire" be the top global Netflix show this week? May 09 $71 −$1 -2%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 50m May 08 $210 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 06 $70 −$1 -1%
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? May 04 $36 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 04 $34 −$1 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? May 04 $35 +$1 +2%
Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the top US Netflix show this week May 04 $31 +$4 +12%
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 4? May 02 $31 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 28? Apr 28 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 28 $22 +$1 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Apr 28 $10 $0 -2%
Will "Apex" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Apr 27 $20 +$2 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $15 +$3 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $10 −$6 -58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 27? Apr 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 26? Apr 26 $18 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 26? Apr 26 $12 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Apr 25 $9 −$2 -25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $30 +$2 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? BUY Yes 89¢ $45 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? BUY Yes 90¢ $41 28h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 21? BUY Yes 93¢ $38 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? SELL No 100¢ $38 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY No 87¢ $33 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $3 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 94¢ $35 9d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 96¢ $35 9d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY No 82¢ $30 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 11d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $44 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $48 14d
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? SELL Yes 96¢ $48 14d
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 95¢ $47 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $47 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $45 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? SELL No 100¢ $42 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? BUY No 96¢ $40 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $30 22d
Will "In the Grey" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete BUY No 97¢ $12 38d
Will "Mortal Kombat II" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 20m? SELL No $12 38d
Will "Mortal Kombat II" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 20m? BUY No $83 38d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 23m SELL Yes 93¢ $83 38d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 23m BUY Yes 87¢ $79 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.40 · official $47.43 (match) · 91 history records