Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:40:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec05…a438 other 26 markets active 3h ago coverage 462d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$9
other 24% +$1
finance 9% $0
politics 6% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -2.7% -12.0% 20% 0% -11.9%
≤90d 10 -2.7% -12.0% 20% 0% -11.9%
all 26 -0.7% -10.2% 42% 0% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -11.1%
10% -18.8% 0% -19.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -27.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

462d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage462d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $84 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $31 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $10 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $24 −$1 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $40 −$8 -21%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 15 $1 $0 -8%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 18 $11 $0 -2%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 09 $11 $0 -1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe Jun 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 05 $10 $0 +3%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $9 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? Mar 31 $11 $0 +3%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 23 $11 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 14 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $35 2h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $35 2h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $17 20h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $14 20h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $31 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $31 41h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $31 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $18 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $18 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $31 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $30 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $30 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $17 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $4 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $10 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $10 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $10 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $34 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 31¢ $12 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 31¢ $11 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 33¢ $7 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 33¢ $2 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 33¢ $14 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $2 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $29 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $24 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records