Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:56:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec00…1ae3 other 146 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-0%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%25W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$9
14 days−$25
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$19
politics 26% −$18
sports 22% −$22
crypto 9% +$5
economics 6% −$4
culture 4% −$2
tech 2% $0
world 2% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.3% -9.8% 27% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 63 -0.7% -10.1% 17% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 111 -0.5% -10.0% 15% 0% -9.8%
all 145 -0.4% -9.9% 17% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses25 / 120
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)145 / 146
History coverage110d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 94¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $128 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $103 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $206 −$1 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $206 −$1 -0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $75 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $597 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $155 +$1 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $83 −$1 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 18 $31 $0 +1%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $186 −$1 -0%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $51 $0 +1%
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $53 $0 +0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $164 −$3 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 16 $50 $0 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $198 −$1 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $53 −$1 -3%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $116 −$5 -4%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $310 −$1 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $59 $0 +1%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $15 $0 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $199 −$1 -1%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 12 $55 −$3 -5%
Will Florian Wirtz win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $47 −$3 -6%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $148 −$1 -0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $97 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $94 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $53 $0 +0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $54 −$1 -2%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 05 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $198 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $96 $0 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $63 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $55 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $342 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $106 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $52 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $43 58m
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $60 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $61 5h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $50 6h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $50 11h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $45 11h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $45 19h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $50 19h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $51 24h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $59 25h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $58 32h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $41 32h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $41 36h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $37 37h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $37 45h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $61 46h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $61 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $48 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $12 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $39 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $40 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 98¢ $32 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $20 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $12 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $61 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $62 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 3d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $62 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.02 · official $42.02 (match) · 576 history records