Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:35:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EB 0xebff…66d7 crypto 1039 markets active 4d ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d only
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$465 (-6%) realized −$461 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate66%687W / 350L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day71.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$164
14 days−$161
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$183
weather 3% −$16
other 1% −$23
world 0% −$8
sports 0% −$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -85.0% -86.4% 7% 7% -83.3%
≤30d 301 -18.8% -26.5% 43% 41% -20.5%
≤90d 1037 -9.6% -18.2% 66% 24% -12.2%
all 1037 -9.6% -18.2% 66% 24% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 24% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 16% -20.6%
15% -33.2% 11% -28.3%
20% -39.7% 8% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$461
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses687 / 350
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1037 / 1039
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day71.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1037 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? No 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 8¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +82%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 −$4 -48%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$3 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 26? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Pri Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 26? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on May 26? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C or higher on May 26? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $8 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 62¢ $4 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 86¢ $2 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $2 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 94¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 86¢ $2 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 6d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 6d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 6d
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? BUY No 13¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 11d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 11d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.13 · official $2.13 (match) · 3500 history records