Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:08:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EB 0xebff…264f other 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,362 (+1%) realized +$1,362 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate21%28W / 107L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$1,000per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$617now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$12
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$29
politics 31% −$50
sports 8% +$1,379
world 1% −$47
culture 1% −$2
economics 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 72 +1.2% -8.4% 8% 3% -8.4%
all 135 +2.4% -7.4% 21% 13% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 13% -8.6%
10% -16.2% 13% -17.4%
15% -24.3% 11% -25.4%
20% -31.7% 7% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,528) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$6 · ×11.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.98 per $1 lost it wins $2.98
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$617
Realized+$1,362
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses28 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage157d
Avg bet$1,000
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $618 $617 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $218 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $210 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $331 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,189 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $762 −$1 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 12 $962 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $735 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $747 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,147 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,784 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $771 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,815 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $429 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? Jun 02 $810 +$1 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,144 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2,333 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,809 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,190 −$3 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1,205 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,003 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $989 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $4,814 −$6 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,317 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $1,530 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $2,914 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,131 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,575 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,699 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $1,684 −$3 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $1,929 −$2 -0%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 29 $1,629 +$744 +46%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $3,461 −$3 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $3,073 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $2,621 −$3 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $1,571 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,575 −$2 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,528 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,532 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,615 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,356 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $2,152 −$2 -0%
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,429 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $2,501 −$3 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $3,459 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1,248 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $2,212 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $217 38m
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $218 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $209 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $210 2h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $331 2d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $331 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $618 3d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $662 5d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $663 5d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $866 6d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $867 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $761 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $762 7d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $961 7d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $962 8d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $734 8d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $735 8d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $778 8d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $780 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $746 12d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $747 12d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $888 13d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $890 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,146 16d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,147 16d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $990 16d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $992 16d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $769 16d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $771 17d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $816 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $617.25 · official $617.25 (match) · 402 history records