Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:16:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xebfd…070f crypto 692 markets active 2h ago coverage 281d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$324 (-5%) realized −$332 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%205W / 485L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$26
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$281
other 2% +$14
sports 2% −$28
economics 2% −$31
politics 0% −$14
weather 0% −$8
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -22.5% -29.9% 33% 33% -1.6%
≤30d 13 +2.4% -7.3% 46% 46% -1.5%
≤90d 51 -33.5% -39.8% 24% 24% -30.5%
all 690 -15.9% -23.9% 30% 29% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 29% -14.6%
10% -31.2% 29% -22.8%
15% -37.9% 28% -30.2%
20% -44.0% 27% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$8 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

281d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$332
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses205 / 485
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)690 / 692
History coverage281d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 690 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5) France 77¢ 94¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+23%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 474 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$1 -13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 +$9 +46%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$8 +250%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$27 -54%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $24 +$26 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $9 +$11 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11AM ET May 25 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 07 $2 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Mar 30 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Mar 30 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Mar 30 $8 +$7 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Mar 29 $10 +$40 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Mar 29 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Mar 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 28 $5 +$16 +324%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Mar 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 25? Mar 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 25? Mar 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Mar 25 $10 +$40 +400%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 77¢ $30 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 43¢ $8 4d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 48¢ $10 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 7d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 28¢ $23 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $50 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $9 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 60¢ $6 18d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 7¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.24 · official $42.85 (match) · 1873 history records