Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EB 0xebfc…e149 other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 587d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$72 (+29%) realized +$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$38
14 days−$38
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 80% +$105
other 14% −$24
sports 6% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-67.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -81.2% -82.9% 14% 0% -81.1%
≤30d 7 -81.2% -82.9% 14% 0% -81.1%
≤90d 7 -81.2% -82.9% 14% 0% -81.1%
all 8 -64.4% -67.8% 25% 12% +14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.8% 12% +14.7%
10% -70.9% 12% +3.7%
15% -73.7% 12% -6.3%
20% -76.3% 12% -15.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -79% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt +27% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$6 · ×8.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.71 per $1 lost it wins $2.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

587d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage587d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 −$16 -77%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $199 +$105 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 29h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 3d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 95¢ $207 585d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 95¢ $3 585d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 95¢ $95 585d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $100 586d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $99 586d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records