Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:03:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EB
0xebf0…2330
weather · 610 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$187 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$218 · open −$35
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12
Realized+$218
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses251 / 350
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)601 / 610
History coverage20d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day161.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 9 History 601 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$108
7 days+$347
14 days+$554
30 days+$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Yes 46¢ 97¢ $3 $5 +$3 (+111%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Yes 65¢ 98¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? No 58¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+72%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Yes 52¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+92%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 13? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $44 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $15 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $12 +$9 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 +$2 +667%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$4 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$12 +159%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 12 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $37 +$33 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$3 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $11 +$47 +422%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $38 −$28 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +181%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$12 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$42 +348%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$5 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$4 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $27 +$7 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $48 −$40 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$4 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 11 $35 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $38 +$17 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $45 +$15 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $27 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$194
sports 0% −$10
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 98¢ $48 32m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 53¢ $37 35m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $44 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 53¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 16¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 37¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 38¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? SELL No 89¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 77¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 69¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 91¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? SELL Yes 41¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 46¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 46¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 207 +13.8% +2.9% 42% 37% +1.2%
≤30d 601 +19.0% +7.6% 42% 37% -7.5%
≤90d 601 +19.0% +7.6% 42% 37% -7.5%
all 601 +19.0% +7.6% 42% 37% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover161.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.6% 37% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -2.7% 29% -16.4%
15% -12.1% 26% -24.5%
20% -20.7% 21% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.14 · official $10.23 · 3500 history records