Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:52:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EB 0xebee…5ce5 crypto 1979 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$213 (-3%) realized −$213 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate68%1354W / 625L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day43.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$25
14 days+$76
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 193 +2.8% -7.0% 83% 69% -6.7%
≤30d 1239 +1.8% -7.9% 82% 68% -7.8%
≤90d 1979 -9.2% -17.9% 68% 58% -10.8%
all 1979 -9.2% -17.9% 68% 58% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 58% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 40% -19.4%
15% -32.9% 21% -27.2%
20% -39.5% 7% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$213
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses1354 / 625
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1979 / 1979
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day43.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1979 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records