Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:33:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xebee…27cc other 263 markets active 0h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 253L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$15
14 days−$26
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$44
sports 27% −$24
politics 9% −$8
culture 6% −$6
economics 5% −$5
crypto 3% −$2
world 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 172 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 263 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 253
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)263 / 263
History coverage139d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 263 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $507 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $270 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $238 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $260 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $318 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $279 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $585 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $147 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $59 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $304 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $605 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $450 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $344 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $133 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $216 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 17 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $138 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $256 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $437 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $210 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $215 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $217 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $272 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $456 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $239 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $273 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $272 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $473 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $271 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $230 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $237 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $242 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $204 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $295 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $647 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $276 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 23m
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 1h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 3h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 4h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 6h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 7h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $58 9h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $58 11h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 12h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $58 13h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 15h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 16h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $58 22h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $58 24h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $58 24h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $58 26h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $58 31h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $59 32h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 34h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 36h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $59 37h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $59 39h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 40h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 42h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 43h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 44h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $59 46h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $59 47h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1374 history records