Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:33:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EB 0xebed…ba93 politics 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$66 (+0%) realized +$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%17W / 120L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$350per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$23
politics 39% −$24
sports 4% +$112
economics 3% −$2
tech 2% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 125 +2.1% -7.6% 9% 6% -9.5%
all 137 +2.7% -7.0% 12% 9% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 9% -9.4%
10% -15.9% 7% -18.1%
15% -24.1% 4% -26.0%
20% -31.5% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×11.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses17 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage116d
Avg bet$350
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $316 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $331 $0 -0%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 08 $31 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $364 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $48 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $35 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $46 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $271 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $641 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $348 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $662 −$1 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 22 $354 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $349 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $393 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $348 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $332 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $887 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $1,055 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $332 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $331 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 05 $47 $0 +0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $331 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $330 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $735 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $257 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $268 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 26 $339 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $352 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $338 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $735 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 9h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 19h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 19h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 27h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 32h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 5d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 9d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 9d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 10d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 10d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 11d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 11d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $31 11d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $31 13d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 13d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 13d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 14d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 20d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 21d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $46 21d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $46 21d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $388 21d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $389 24d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $271 25d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $271 25d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $321 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.97 · official $54.97 (match) · 414 history records