Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:39:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EB 0xebed…7d9c weather 264 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$12 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate29%75W / 188L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$103
14 days−$75
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 85% +$1
sports 10% −$31
other 4% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -48.8% -53.7% 10% 10% -60.3%
≤30d 107 -16.6% -24.6% 21% 19% -18.4%
≤90d 263 -2.1% -11.4% 29% 22% -11.3%
all 263 -2.1% -11.4% 29% 22% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 22% -11.3%
10% -19.9% 20% -19.8%
15% -27.6% 18% -27.5%
20% -34.7% 16% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$6 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses75 / 188
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)263 / 264
History coverage72d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 263 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? Yes 34¢ 22¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 −$4 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$3 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 −$7 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -90%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$3 +31%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$10 +472%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$5 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$4 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or below on June 6? Jun 10 $8 −$5 -60%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 4? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 30? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 5? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 30? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 5? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on May 29? Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ma Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -85%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 +$9 +459%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -62%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 −$4 -70%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$26 +496%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 4? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 4? Jun 04 $3 +$7 +265%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 +$1 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $9 −$8 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 −$1 -45%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 02 $3 +$2 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 +$8 +171%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $3 −$2 -71%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $7 −$4 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $6 −$3 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $3 −$2 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 43m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.15 · official $1.90 (match) · 1263 history records