Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:16:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xebe6…9278 sports 458 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (352 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$11,972 (+5%) realized +$14,453 · open −$2,481
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate31%238W / 541L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$574per market
Trades / day351.8pace
Fees−$3,850est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$42,644now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$23,587
other 12% −$1,974
finance 1% +$1,083
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (352 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 729 -36.2% -42.3% 28% 25% -46.5%
≤30d 779 -27.9% -34.8% 31% 27% -39.6%
≤90d 779 -27.9% -34.8% 31% 27% -39.6%
all 779 -27.9% -34.8% 31% 27% -39.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover351.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.8% 27% -39.6%
10% ← realistic here -41.0% 25% -45.3%
15% -46.7% 22% -50.6%
20% -51.9% 18% -55.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$637) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +32% → late -87% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$315 vs −$367 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$42,644
Realized+$14,453
Unrealized−$2,481
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses238 / 541
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$3,850
Open positions40
Markets (closed)779 / 458
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$574
Trades / day351.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 779 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 21¢ $3,158 $6,225 +$3,067 (+97%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 77¢ $6,602 $6,174 −$429 (-6%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) San Francisco Giants 61¢ 78¢ $3,030 $3,894 +$864 (+29%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4,500 $3,750 −$750 (-17%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 56¢ 49¢ $3,345 $2,940 −$405 (-12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 94¢ $2,692 $2,827 +$136 (+5%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $2,072 $2,078 +$6 (+0%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 92¢ 97¢ $1,840 $1,936 +$96 (+5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 95¢ $1,752 $1,739 −$12 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 50¢ 50¢ $1,735 $1,732 −$2 (-0%)
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 68¢ 72¢ $1,275 $1,341 +$66 (+5%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Toronto Blue Jays 50¢ 36¢ $1,500 $1,095 −$405 (-27%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2,003 $1,050 −$953 (-48%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1,356 $867 −$489 (-36%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $1,022 $781 −$242 (-24%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Under 47¢ 52¢ $564 $618 +$54 (+10%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Chicago Cubs 62¢ 48¢ $605 $463 −$141 (-23%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Detroit Tigers 66¢ 52¢ $585 $461 −$124 (-21%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 64¢ 48¢ $481 $361 −$120 (-25%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $337 $313 −$24 (-7%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Under 37¢ 72¢ $148 $286 +$138 (+93%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $271 $250 −$21 (-8%)
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 61¢ 55¢ $244 $218 −$26 (-11%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Under 53¢ 58¢ $197 $217 +$20 (+10%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Under 62¢ 54¢ $237 $205 −$33 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 456 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 29 $0 −$270 -267763%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 29 $0 $0 +30%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 29 $0 −$30 -47981%
Spread: Rockets (-5.5) Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files? Jun 29 $179 −$179 -100%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 29 $1,601 −$1,601 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $67 −$67 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 29 $1,990 −$1,990 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 29 $438 −$438 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 29 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 29 $187 −$187 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) Jun 29 $490 −$490 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Islanders Jun 29 $0 +$15 +3684%
Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5) Jun 29 $365 −$365 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 29 $4,102 −$4,102 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Jun 29 $92 −$92 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 218.5 Jun 29 $260 −$260 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 29 $238 −$238 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 29 $871 −$871 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 29 $1,228 −$1,228 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 29 $170 −$170 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 29 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 29 $224 −$224 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 29 $1,230 −$1,230 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 29 $561 −$561 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 29 $208 −$208 -100%
Capitals vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 4.5 Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 Jun 29 $120 −$120 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 29 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-04-12? Jun 29 $31 −$31 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 29 $176 −$176 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Jun 29 $44 −$44 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 29 $293 −$293 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 29 $352 −$352 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Kings (-1.5) Jun 29 $288 −$288 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 29 $320 −$320 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 5, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 29 $92 −$92 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 29 $1,578 −$1,578 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 68¢ $77 12m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $137 4h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $6 4h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $39 4h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 5h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 5h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $161 5h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 6h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $215 6h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 37¢ $4 6h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 37¢ $4 6h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 37¢ $2 6h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 37¢ $26 6h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $107 6h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 6h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 65¢ $47 6h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,036 6h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 6h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 33¢ $1 6h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $207 6h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 66¢ $72 7h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $23 7h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 7h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $107 7h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 49¢ $189 7h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 49¢ $52 7h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 49¢ $9 7h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 49¢ $25 7h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 49¢ $1 7h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 49¢ $9 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42,643.92 · official $42,641.93 (match) · 3500 history records