Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:52:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xebe6…4fd0 other 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$132 (-7%) realized −$98 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%14W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$271now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$169
14 days−$155
30 days−$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$10
other 36% −$172
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -27.4% -34.3% 31% 23% -33.5%
≤30d 55 -19.4% -27.1% 25% 24% -17.8%
≤90d 55 -19.4% -27.1% 25% 24% -17.8%
all 55 -19.4% -27.1% 25% 24% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 24% -17.8%
10% -34.1% 24% -25.7%
15% -40.5% 22% -32.9%
20% -46.3% 22% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$21 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$271
Realized−$98
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses14 / 41
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions7
Markets (closed)55 / 62
History coverage20d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Japan? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $100 $73 −$27 (-27%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 31¢ 31¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 47¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 14¢ 14¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? Jun 24 $8 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$3 -24%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$16 +30%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $102 −$50 -49%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 −$2 -18%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 +$56 +111%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 $0 -1%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$92 +180%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$84 +165%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $71 +$82 +115%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$66 +325%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$73 +238%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $5 +$33 +650%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $23 +$23 +97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 +$10 +250%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$36 +177%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 14¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 33¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 96¢ $208 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $102 3d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 3d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 5d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 5d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 5d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $67 5d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 4¢ $6 5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 32¢ $51 5d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Belgium 18¢ $8 5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 41¢ $46 5d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 21¢ $10 5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $51 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 5d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 84¢ $107 5d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $51 6d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $271.47 · official $271.47 (match) · 112 history records