Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:23:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

EB 0xebe4…382b other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$39 (+21%) realized +$38 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip

Net edge+32%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$61per market

Trades / day3.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+32.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+45.9%	+32.0%	100%	100%	+33.5%
≤30d	2	+45.9%	+32.0%	100%	100%	+33.5%
≤90d	2	+45.9%	+32.0%	100%	100%	+33.5%
all	2	+45.9%	+32.0%	100%	100%	+33.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+32.0%	100%	+33.5%
10%	+19.4%	100%	+20.7%
15%	+7.9%	100%	+9.0%
20%	-2.7%	50%	-1.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 69% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +48% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +46% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$19 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$101

Realized+$38

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$61

Trades / day3.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	61¢	62¢	$100	$101	+$1 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$30	+$12	+40%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	Jun 27	$51	+$26	+52%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	61¢	$101	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	71¢	$30	14h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	65¢	$51	18h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.82 · official $100.82 (match) · 7 history records