Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:44:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EB 0xebde…ab84 crypto 68 markets active 2d ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$780 (+17%) realized +$780 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%38W / 30L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days+$107
14 days+$297
30 days+$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$739
other 19% +$16
sports 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -11.9% -20.3% 62% 62% -2.2%
≤30d 26 -3.9% -13.1% 65% 65% +4.1%
≤90d 27 -2.5% -11.8% 67% 67% +4.9%
all 68 -7.5% -16.3% 56% 56% +6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 56% +6.2%
10% -24.3% 51% -3.9%
15% -31.6% 44% -13.2%
20% -38.3% 22% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$36 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$780
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses38 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage124d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$85 +82%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$38 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $135 −$100 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $181 +$77 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$37 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$68 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$59 +57%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$23 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$145 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $104 +$111 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 14 $102 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 3, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 04 $100 +$35 +35%
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 01 $95 +$73 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 01 $100 +$36 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 01 $100 +$50 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Feb 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Feb 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Feb 27 $100 +$178 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Feb 27 $100 +$64 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Feb 26 $100 +$89 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Feb 26 $140 +$47 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Feb 26 $100 +$41 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Feb 26 $100 +$62 +62%
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Feb 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Feb 22 $20 +$12 +62%
XRP Up or Down - February 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Feb 22 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Feb 22 $70 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 22 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Feb 22 $30 +$11 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Feb 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Feb 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Feb 15 $50 −$22 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 37h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 37h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $119 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $130 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $92 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $77 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $167 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 153 history records