Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:24:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xebdd…c30b crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$189 (-12%) realized −$189 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate60%26W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day57.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$386
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +4.5% -5.4% 60% 58% -32.0%
≤30d 43 +4.5% -5.4% 60% 58% -32.0%
≤90d 43 +4.5% -5.4% 60% 58% -32.0%
all 43 +4.5% -5.4% 60% 58% -32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 58% -32.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 56% -38.5%
15% -22.7% 40% -44.4%
20% -30.3% 30% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$50 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$189
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses26 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage1d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day57.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $78 −$75 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$25 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $105 −$105 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $44 +$29 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$83 +316%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$31 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $12 +$9 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $83 +$83 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$25 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$45 +173%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $12 +$13 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$6 +103%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$21 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $51 −$15 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$35 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$17 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$7 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$13 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$11 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$11 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$8 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$3 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$6 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $172 −$165 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $105 −$100 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $27 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $44 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $12 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $83 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $12 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $52 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $31 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $36 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $51 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $87 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $68 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $30 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records