Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xebdc…dce2 world 55 markets active 3h ago coverage 326d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate32%17W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$2
other 29% $0
politics 9% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.2% -8.5% 30% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 19 +4.2% -5.8% 47% 11% -9.4%
≤90d 19 +4.2% -5.8% 47% 11% -9.4%
all 53 +0.6% -8.9% 32% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 4% -9.4%
10% -17.7% 2% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 2% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

326d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses17 / 36
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage326d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 83¢ 83¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 42¢ 42¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $47 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $24 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $11 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $95 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $8 +$1 +10%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $45 +$2 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $89 −$3 -4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $42 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $6 +$1 +15%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $17 $0 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $3 +$2 +52%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $70 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $41 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? Aug 13 $2 $0 -6%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Jim Walden win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 08 $4 $0 +0%
Will no leader be out in 2025? Aug 07 $4 $0 +1%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 06 $1 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 31 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $42 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $40 6h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $7 6h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $47 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $37 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $2 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $3 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $42 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $11 22h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 22h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $17 28h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $24 41h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $24 43h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $48 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $48 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $22 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $26 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $47 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $34 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $34 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $9 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $3 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $34 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.64 · official $42.33 (match) · 187 history records