Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xebdc…d2de other 201 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$98 (-12%) realized −$98 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate48%96W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$63
sports 41% −$42
world 1% −$4
crypto 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -4.8% -13.9% 64% 36% -14.4%
≤30d 26 -27.9% -34.8% 50% 27% -29.4%
≤90d 162 -17.1% -25.0% 52% 27% -20.9%
all 198 -18.9% -26.6% 48% 28% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 28% -21.2%
10% -33.6% 21% -28.8%
15% -40.1% 18% -35.6%
20% -45.9% 14% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses96 / 102
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)198 / 201
History coverage98d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -86%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$3 +93%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -76%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -77%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +44%
T20 Series Sri Lanka A vs New Zealand A, Women: Sri Lanka A vs New Zea May 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $3 $0 +10%
Will Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$9 -87%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5 May 24 $8 +$1 +7%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 −$2 -49%
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 4.5 May 24 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC end in a draw? May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Kyōto Sanga FC vs. V-Varen Nagasaki end in a draw? May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will FC Anyang win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will Al Okhdood SC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $4 +$3 +66%
Will Ulsan HD FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will FCSB vs. AFC Unirea Slobozia end in a draw? May 12 $1 +$7 +650%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Will FC Metaloglobus București vs. FC Hermannstadt end in a draw? May 11 $2 +$2 +118%
Will FC Metaloglobus București win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw? May 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. Gwangju FC: O/U 1.5 May 05 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Sporting CP vs. Vitória SC: O/U 4.5 May 04 $2 −$2 -76%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $2 −$2 -90%
Will Vålerenga Fotball vs. KFUM-Kameratene Oslo end in a draw? May 04 $5 $0 +3%
Will ASC Oțelul Galați win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Gangwon FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $3 $0 +6%
Will Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? May 01 $6 −$6 -98%
Viking FK vs. Rosenborg BK: O/U 2.5 May 01 $8 +$1 +14%
Viking FK vs. Rosenborg BK: O/U 3.5 May 01 $8 $0 -3%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Al Okhdood SC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $3 −$3 -96%
Will FC Mito Holly Hock vs. FC Machida Zelvia end in a draw? Apr 30 $5 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 55m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $30 59m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 14h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 30h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 51¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 3d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) SELL Türkiye $0 3d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 31¢ $6 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 7d
T20 Series Sri Lanka A vs New Zealand A, Women: Sri Lanka A vs New Zea BUY Sri Lanka A 48¢ $4 23d
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 23d
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 90¢ $3 23d
Will Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 23d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.61 · official $5.61 (match) · 358 history records