Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:57:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xebdb…5ac4 weather 1314 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d only
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$391 (+3%) realized +$399 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate76%993W / 312L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day53.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days+$3
14 days+$20
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$190
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 227 -4.6% -13.7% 78% 17% -9.4%
≤30d 734 +3.1% -6.7% 84% 18% -8.9%
≤90d 1305 +5.1% -4.9% 76% 23% -8.1%
all 1305 +5.1% -4.9% 76% 23% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.9% 23% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -14.0% 18% -16.9%
15% -22.3% 16% -24.9%
20% -29.9% 13% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized+$399
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses993 / 312
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1305 / 1314
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day53.9
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1305 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? Yes 80¢ 95¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? No 96¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16? No 97¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 16? No 91¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? No 97¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? No 97¢ 85¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? No 85¢ 66¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? No 94¢ 28¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$4 +49%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $37 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $71 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $38 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $17 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $33 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 15 $70 −$4 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 11? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $84 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 91¢ $10 16m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $11 50m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $10 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $10 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 13h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? SELL No 47¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $2 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.64 · official $81.64 (match) · 3500 history records