Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:13:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EB 0xebda…5208 sports 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$2,714 (+14%) realized +$2,843 · open −$129
Gross ROI / mkt +92% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +73% what you keep after slip
Net edge+73%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%31W / 48L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$143est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,331now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 154d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$7
sports 33% +$5,542
world 29% −$69
tech 3% −$262
crypto 1% +$766
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+73.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +239.1% +206.8% 55% 55% +121.0%
≤30d 55 +117.5% +96.8% 47% 47% +62.5%
≤90d 57 +115.0% +94.5% 47% 47% +62.7%
all 79 +91.6% +73.3% 39% 38% +34.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +73.3% 38% +34.4%
10% +56.8% 37% +21.5%
15% +41.6% 35% +9.8%
20% +27.7% 34% -1.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +79% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +92% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +164% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$348 vs −$97 · ×3.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.31 per $1 lost it wins $2.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$1,331
Realized+$2,843
Unrealized−$129
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses31 / 48
Est. fees paid−$143
Open positions5
Markets (closed)79 / 119
History coverage154d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $800 $806 +$6 (+1%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 25¢ 17¢ $270 $186 −$84 (-31%)
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Yes 29¢ 34¢ $140 $167 +$27 (+19%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Will Vitinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 24¢ $100 $25 −$75 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $132 −$8 -6%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 25 $203 −$13 -7%
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals Jun 25 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $338 −$32 -10%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 25 $143 +$263 +184%
Haris Tabaković: 1+ goals Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 24 $56 +$506 +896%
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Alg Jun 24 $210 +$596 +284%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND W Jun 23 $144 +$766 +533%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $10 +$246 +2392%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $122 +$157 +129%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 22 $305 −$300 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 22 $13 −$13 -97%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $347 +$672 +194%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $81 +$96 +119%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $510 +$879 +172%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina Jun 20 $153 +$364 +238%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will United State Jun 19 $154 +$1,007 +654%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $123 +$338 +276%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on Jun 18 $31 +$272 +884%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $204 +$368 +180%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 +$80 +197%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $285 +$567 +198%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$242 +237%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 +$100 +99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$3 -9%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$189 +93%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 +$282 +276%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$255 +249%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $1,555 −$457 -29%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$214 +105%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $112 +$276 +246%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$168 +165%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $420 +$193 +46%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 07 $100 −$50 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $143 52m
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $143 1h
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ shots on target AND Ramin Rezaeian: 1+ shots on targe BUY $50 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will BUY 16¢ $100 3h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $133 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY 22¢ $200 3h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06- BUY 17¢ $200 3h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score AND Norway vs. France BUY 10¢ $120 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? AND W BUY 14¢ $100 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $153 5h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Algeria vs. Austria: Draw a BUY 15¢ $100 5h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 41¢ $125 5h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $132 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $306 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06- BUY 33¢ $297 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? AND Wi BUY 13¢ $199 23h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 50¢ $189 23h
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $204 30h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $203 30h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $306 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 17¢ $205 39h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals AND Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY 23¢ $205 46h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $143 46h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) AND Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Will M BUY $154 46h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: Morocco (-2.5) AND BUY 13¢ $185 46h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Wi BUY 23¢ $256 2d
Haris Tabaković: 1+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $21 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? A BUY $103 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $153 2d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY $103 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,331.05 · official $2,179.18 · 195 history records