Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xebd9…86e9 crypto 20 markets active 7d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-7%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate60%12W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day37.0pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$4
other 11% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -18.9% -26.7% 64% 18% -19.5%
≤30d 20 -11.1% -19.5% 60% 30% -17.7%
≤90d 20 -11.1% -19.5% 60% 30% -17.7%
all 20 -11.1% -19.5% 60% 30% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 30% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 25% -25.6%
15% -34.3% 25% -32.7%
20% -40.7% 10% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses12 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +37%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +43%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -47%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 6d
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 6d
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 6d
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 6d
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 7d
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 7d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $1 7d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 7d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 7d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records