Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:00:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EB
0xebd5…4a28
other · 17 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$606 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$611 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$42
Realized+$611
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses9 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)9 / 17
History coverage335d
Avg bet$331
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 8 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 50¢ 50¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 80¢ 89¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 97¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Jun 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 21 $7 $0 +2%
Clippers vs. Lakers Jul 16 $520 +$610 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 89% $0
sports 9% +$610
other 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.7%
≤30d 7 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.7%
≤90d 7 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.7%
all 9 +14.8% +3.9% 100% 11% +86.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.9% 11% +86.9%
10% -6.1% 11% +69.0%
15% -15.1% 11% +52.7%
20% -23.5% 11% +37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.42 · official $42.42 (match) · 29 history records