Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$10

7 days+$10

14 days+$10

30 days+$10

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?	Yes	2¢	5¢	$4	$8	+$4 (+107%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	Yes	2¢	3¢	$3	$5	+$2 (+69%)
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$3	$5	+$2 (+61%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	6¢	4¢	$7	$5	−$2 (-35%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	22¢	18¢	$5	$4	−$1 (-16%)
Nick Fuentes arrested by June 30?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$5	$3	−$2 (-48%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?	Yes	10¢	9¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-13%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$5	$2	−$2 (-50%)
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$2	$2	+$0 (+14%)
E. Jean Carroll arrested by June 30?	Yes	3¢	1¢	$5	$2	−$3 (-63%)
James Comey in jail by June 30?	Yes	3¢	2¢	$3	$2	−$1 (-40%)
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$2	$2	−$1 (-23%)
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30?	Yes	3¢	2¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-22%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	7¢	6¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-7%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-11%)
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-46%)
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	13¢	7¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-46%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?	Jun 10	$2	+$10	+525%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Jun 04	$2	$0	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

other 50% −$11

world 26% −$4

politics 24% +$19

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	4¢	$1	2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	7¢	$1	2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	3¢	$1	2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	2h
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	BUY Yes	2¢	$2	35h
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	35h
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30?	BUY Yes	3¢	$2	35h
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31?	BUY Yes	2¢	$2	35h
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?	BUY Yes	2¢	$4	35h
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	BUY Yes	1¢	$3	3d
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	BUY Yes	2¢	$2	4d
James Comey in jail by June 30?	BUY Yes	3¢	$3	4d
Nick Fuentes arrested by June 30?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	4d
E. Jean Carroll arrested by June 30?	BUY Yes	3¢	$5	4d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?	BUY Yes	10¢	$3	4d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	SELL Yes	13¢	$2	7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	BUY Yes	22¢	$5	9d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY Yes	13¢	$2	9d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	BUY Yes	13¢	$1	11d
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	11d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	BUY Yes	6¢	$7	11d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?	BUY Yes	16¢	$2	11d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

worth copying (survives realistic slippage)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+228.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+525.0%	+465.5%	100%	100%	+465.5%
≤30d	2	+262.5%	+228.0%	50%	50%	+228.0%
≤90d	2	+262.5%	+228.0%	50%	50%	+228.0%
all	2	+262.5%	+228.0%	50%	50%	+228.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover2.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+228.0%	50%	+228.0%
10%	+196.6%	50%	+196.6%
15%	+167.9%	50%	+167.9%
20%	+141.7%	50%	+141.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.