Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:28:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xebd2…87f8 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-4%) realized −$52 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$630now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$39
politics 27% +$11
sports 11% +$38
world 4% −$3
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -11.1% -19.6% 0% 0% -19.5%
≤30d 3 -11.1% -19.6% 0% 0% -19.5%
≤90d 3 -11.1% -19.6% 0% 0% -19.5%
all 3 -11.1% -19.6% 0% 0% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 0% -19.5%
10% -27.3% 0% -27.2%
15% -34.3% 0% -34.2%
20% -40.8% 0% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$4 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$630
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)3 / 12
History coverage5d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $313 $302 −$10 (-3%)
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes 45¢ 50¢ $138 $152 +$14 (+10%)
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $57 $54 −$3 (-5%)
Betmoar FDV above $20M one day after launch? No 54¢ 46¢ $57 $48 −$9 (-16%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A 9INE 0¢ 48¢ $0 $41 +$41 (+0%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $33 $18 −$15 (-44%)
Will Bill Hill advance from the AK-AL primary election? No 11¢ 11¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? No 69¢ 71¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Jun 19 $29 −$3 -11%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $37 −$5 -14%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 17 $43 −$4 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $630.14 · official $630.14 (match) · 19 history records