Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xebd1…8f9f sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$93 (-6%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%15W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$147
7 days+$135
14 days+$135
30 days+$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$201
other 27% −$144
politics 10% −$161
crypto 8% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -2.6% -11.9% 44% 44% +3.9%
≤30d 18 -2.6% -11.9% 44% 44% +3.9%
≤90d 23 -5.2% -14.3% 43% 39% -5.0%
all 36 -11.8% -20.2% 42% 36% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 36% -15.1%
10% -27.8% 33% -23.2%
15% -34.8% 31% -30.6%
20% -41.2% 28% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$28 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses15 / 21
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage93d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $52 +$41 +80%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 +$10 +86%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $132 +$210 +159%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $48 −$46 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $114 −$67 -59%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $57 −$56 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $101 −$3 -3%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -96%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $17 −$2 -11%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $57 +$60 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $16 −$7 -45%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +17%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $110 −$52 -48%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $71 +$49 +69%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $48 +$18 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $100 +$59 +59%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 03 $41 +$2 +5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 03 $34 +$9 +27%
Miami Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Terence Atmane Mar 23 $86 −$86 -100%
Miami Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Jakub Mensik Mar 23 $48 −$1 -2%
Miami Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Taylor Fritz Mar 23 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? Mar 22 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Sophia Chikirou win the Paris mayor election? Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? Mar 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 19 $11 −$7 -62%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Mar 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 19 $9 +$6 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 19 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 19 $20 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 19 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 19 $31 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 19 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 19 $20 +$9 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 79¢ $93 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $31 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $21 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 53¢ $11 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 85¢ $341 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $132 29h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $48 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 2.5 SELL Over 8¢ $47 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $114 47h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 17¢ $57 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $57 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $98 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $101 3d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $16 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 47¢ $117 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 22¢ $57 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $8 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 19¢ $9 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $1 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $15 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $54 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $18 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records