Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:38:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EB 0xebce…f0a8 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate82%9W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,505per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 97% −$17
other 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 11 +0.8% -8.8% 82% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -17.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses9 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage223d
Avg bet$1,505
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $71 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 09 $34 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $67 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February? Mar 05 $63 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February? Mar 05 $67 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February? Feb 24 $127 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 27 $17,521 −$18 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Jan 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Jan 19 $7 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.41 · official $70.41 (match) · 23 history records