Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:40:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EB
0xebcd…d2ef
crypto · 1171 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$29 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$7 · open +$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$860
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1030 / 127
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1157 / 1171
History coverage38d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day65.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 14 History 1157 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$53
14 days−$89
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 85¢ 82¢ $110 $107 −$3 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 99¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? No 93¢ 89¢ $75 $72 −$3 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? No 93¢ 100¢ $60 $64 +$4 (+7%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 89¢ 99¢ $55 $61 +$6 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 78¢ 84¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $172 in June? No 52¢ 52¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? No 94¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 13? No 94¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 1? Yes 93¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $84 $0 −$84 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? No 87¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$13 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -57%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $25 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? Jun 13 $80 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $90 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$1 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$4 +16%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $24 $0 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $35 +$12 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $120 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $35 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $35 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $70 +$7 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $70 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $120 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $51 +$12 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $150 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $24 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $78 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $24 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$5 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 52% +$122
crypto 30% −$207
other 8% +$49
finance 5% +$43
economics 2% +$11
sports 1% +$17
world 1% +$39
politics 0% −$51
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $7 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $20 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 81¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 81¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 84¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $20 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $12 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 -0.7% -10.2% 90% 16% -8.7%
≤30d 663 +2.7% -7.1% 90% 15% -9.0%
≤90d 1157 +2.2% -7.6% 89% 16% -9.4%
all 1157 +2.2% -7.6% 89% 16% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover65.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 16% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 4% -18.1%
15% -24.5% 1% -26.0%
20% -31.9% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $860.33 · official $860.24 (match) · 3500 history records