Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:57:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EB 0xebc3…f2ed other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 607d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate24%12W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$317per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 84% −$14
politics 8% −$5
other 4% +$27
sports 2% −$7
world 1% +$2
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 38 +10.4% -0.2% 24% 16% -8.2%
all 50 +7.7% -2.5% 24% 12% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 12% -9.5%
10% -11.9% 12% -18.2%
15% -20.4% 12% -26.1%
20% -28.2% 12% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

607d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses12 / 38
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage607d
Avg bet$317
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 31 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 31 $27 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 29 $98 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $16 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $8 +$10 +129%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 08 $69 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 06 $146 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $67 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $68 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $70 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 18 $72 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 18 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $73 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 +$5 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$6 +79%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $9 +$6 +62%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$12 +165%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 07 $10 +$8 +75%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 06 $36 $0 +0%
Spread: Iowa Hawkeyes (-2.5) Mar 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 06 $69 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 05 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 13 $66 +$2 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 29 $13,526 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 13 $3 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $44 −$1 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $4 $0 -6%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $186 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $217 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $255 −$1 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 27 $390 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 1h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 3d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 4d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 5d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 7d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 10d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 10d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 11d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 11d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 12d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 12d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $15 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 13d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $15 15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $27 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $15 15d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $14 17d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 17d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $18 17d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $18 17d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $27 20d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 23d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 23d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $80 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.09 · official $12.09 (match) · 233 history records