Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:22:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xebc3…f884 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$13 (+6%) realized +$28 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$23
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$41
sports 13% −$21
crypto 10% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-41.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -14.8% -22.9% 44% 44% +2.2%
≤30d 9 -14.8% -22.9% 44% 44% +2.2%
≤90d 13 -35.2% -41.4% 31% 31% -3.9%
all 13 -35.2% -41.4% 31% 31% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.4% 31% -3.9%
10% -47.0% 31% -13.1%
15% -52.1% 31% -21.5%
20% -56.8% 23% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -63% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$10 · ×2.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage74d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Under 63¢ 24¢ $24 $9 −$15 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$31 +103%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 +$50 +166%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 05 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 05 $10 −$2 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 05 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.29 · official $9.29 (match) · 21 history records