Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:17:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EB 0xebc0…5806 other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 310d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$665 (+22%) realized +$663 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate69%22W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$188
7 days+$40
14 days+$40
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$411
sports 18% +$439
politics 3% −$100
crypto 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)+9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +24.6% +12.8% 71% 68% -8.3%
≤30d 31 +24.6% +12.8% 71% 68% -8.3%
≤90d 31 +24.6% +12.8% 71% 68% -8.3%
all 32 +20.7% +9.2% 69% 66% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.2% 66% -11.3%
10% -1.2% 56% -19.8%
15% -10.8% 50% -27.6%
20% -19.5% 44% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$99 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

310d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$663
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses22 / 10
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)32 / 35
History coverage310d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $235 −$135 -58%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $63 −$32 -51%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $171 +$1 +0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $736 −$537 -73%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $204 +$401 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $232 −$26 -11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $140 +$17 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $111 +$74 +66%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $50 −$30 -60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$21 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$28 +93%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 −$18 -59%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $130 +$16 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 +$46 +76%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $61 +$38 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$5 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $44 +$62 +142%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$13 +42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $91 −$90 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$57 +57%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $19 +$2 +11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $91 +$21 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the most votes in the first round of the Aug 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $31 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $63 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 20¢ $63 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $205 4h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $172 4h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $121 4h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 20¢ $138 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 19¢ $61 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $605 7h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $605 7h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $204 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 63¢ $207 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $161 10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $157 10h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 16h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $90 16h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $185 26h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 26h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $71 26h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 36¢ $20 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 36h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 36h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.02 · official $52.02 (match) · 83 history records