Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:14:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EB 0xebc0…0e52 crypto 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$75 (-3%) realized −$78 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate58%70W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$2
crypto 20% −$35
world 8% −$41
politics 7% −$8
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -7.8% -16.6% 67% 67% +5.3%
≤30d 5 -32.7% -39.1% 40% 40% -33.7%
≤90d 87 -13.0% -21.3% 49% 33% -14.5%
all 121 -7.4% -16.3% 58% 39% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 39% -12.7%
10% -24.3% 30% -21.0%
15% -31.6% 20% -28.7%
20% -38.3% 12% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses70 / 51
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage119d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Yes 57¢ 62¢ $26 $29 +$3 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $54 −$22 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $19 −$5 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $22 −$9 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $34 −$7 -20%
Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in Apr 14 $14 +$5 +33%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $58 −$15 -26%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $28 −$4 -12%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 11 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $9 +$12 +129%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 04 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $47 −$18 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $28 −$16 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $56 −$10 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 01 $170 −$113 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 01 $167 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $91 +$76 +83%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 30 $50 +$35 +71%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 30 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 30 $67 −$13 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 28 $43 +$25 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 28 $12 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 28 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 27 $45 −$2 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 27 $41 +$3 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Mar 25 $85 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 25 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 25 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 25 $21 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Mar 25 $5 −$3 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 25 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Mar 24 $110 −$11 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Mar 24 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $82 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 24 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 24 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 24 $2 +$1 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $27 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $32 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $54 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $7 66d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $7 66d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $13 66d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $13 66d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 67d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $12 67d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $19 67d
Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in BUY Yes 75¢ $14 68d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $14 68d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 68d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 68d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 28¢ $12 68d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 68d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 41¢ $25 68d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 47¢ $28 68d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 40¢ $28 68d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 68d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $7 68d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 45¢ $27 68d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 99¢ $27 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.51 · official $28.51 (match) · 365 history records