Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:32:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EB 0xebc0…8ed9 other 61 markets active 16h ago coverage 608d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate27%16W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 75% −$13
other 18% $0
crypto 3% $0
sports 2% +$25
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.7% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 48 +4.2% -5.7% 25% 15% -7.4%
all 60 +3.4% -6.5% 27% 13% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 13% -9.3%
10% -15.4% 12% -18.0%
15% -23.6% 10% -25.9%
20% -31.1% 10% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

608d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses16 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage608d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $140 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $8 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $106 $0 -0%
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves May 18 $8 +$10 +140%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $47 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $6 +$10 +165%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $39 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $37 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $37 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $38 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $39 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $36 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 30 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $40 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $39 $0 -0%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 13 $11 −$1 -6%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $8 +$5 +60%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $11 +$6 +52%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $15 +$4 +24%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $8 +$8 +108%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $10 +$6 +61%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 06 $10 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 06 $30 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 29 $20 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in February? Mar 05 $37 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 15h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 17h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 41h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 45h
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $38 3d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 5d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 5d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $13 6d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $13 6d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $12 7d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $12 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 12d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 12d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $12 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $12 17d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 18d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 21d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 25d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 25d
Will Solana reach $160 in May? BUY No 100¢ $26 26d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.83 · official $37.83 (match) · 278 history records